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30 January - 1 February 2009 forecast

Thursday night...now...the temperatures will fall and so by Friday afternoon, the high temperatures will range from 10-15 degrees. With Northwest winds, I would expect that the snow showers will be going. The wind direction looks like it will try to lock in for a while, so some areas could so significantly higher amounts. My guess is that most of the snow amounts will be light, however. The limiting factor in northwest lower Michigan will be the effect of the ice coverage. I think that areas around eastern Charlevoix, northern Otsego, and southern Emmett counties will have less snow than when the northern part of Lake Michigan is ice-free.

The winds will back to the west and while the next storm system moves into the region, the snow will get started, and spread across the region. By Saturday, the snow will be affecting the whole region, but there is some question at how strong this system is with the high pressure system to the south. Temperatures will warm into the 20s, however, the temperatures won't fall at night with warm air flooding into the region so they will stay in the 20s.

For Sunday, the warm front will be through the region. The temperatures will be in the 30s and no precipitation will be in the forecast. The only thing to watch out for is the cold front in the afternoon which by the evening on Sunday, could drop some more snow.

Looking at the 8-14 day outlook, the Climate center has above normal temperatures for the weekend of Feb. 6-8, 2009. We'll see. We have yet to have an extended period of above normal temperatures. So, my guess is that the temperatures will be at or below normal through the next week.


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23-25 January 2009 Forecast

While it seems mild outside, don't forget that it is the middle of January, and the pattern for now doesn't look like it will quit. So what do we look forward to this weekend? Kind of what happened last weekend. A surge of cold air will push in from Canada. So let's look at the weather maps...

Friday, will be a mild day with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30. Then in the evening a cold front will move through northern Michigan, this will produce snow showers and the temperatures will fall off into the single digits overnight.


This cold air will be so tough to root out that the high temperatures on Saturday will struggle to get to 10 degrees. For those of you who are excited about the possibility of lake effect snow, realize that with the below normal temperatures that the ice on Lake Michigan will begin to limit the amount of snow that we would normally see if the lakes were left uncovered.


Temperatures on Sunday will continue to struggle to get to 10 degrees. There will be lake effect snow in the west and probably nothing in the east. Looking at the probability of precipitation (pop) map, it shows a pretty typical northwest flow pattern. However, I think that based on the ice coverage, the pops will be less than 30% in Emmet and Charlevoix counties.

If you like a more moderate temperature, the 8-14 day outlook is for you. It's got above normal temperatures for the time period and normal precipitation. So we may see another brief warm up for the following weekend.

However, we have to get through the cold weather first...

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Forecast 16-19 January 2009

As I write, the temperature outside is in the single digits below zero. The snow is fine and powdery. This will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future as well.

As we look at the map on Friday night, high pressure will be in the Ohio Valley, ahead of the next system. This will allow for more light lake effect snow. By Saturday morning the low Temperatures will be around zero and the next system will begin affecting northern Michigan. There will be more snow and probably with the temperatures it will be light and fluffy. High temperatures will be in the teens across the region.


By Sunday, the low will be in the Ohio Valley. The last time we had system take that route, there wasn't much snow with it so I will guess that there won't be much snow with this one either. Temperatures will rise a bit more so that it is near 20 around most of northern Michigan.

If you are lucky enough to have the day off on Monday, then temperatures will be a touch warmer, probably in the mid 20s. Light snow will continue through the day as a small low comes out of Canada.

So on a whole, the weekend will be great to get out and do all the winter sports. My son went out last weekend winter camping. It was really cold he said. It shouldn't be as cold this weekend, but a zero degree bag wouldn't hurt.

The 8-14 day outlook is for the following weekend to be below normal with temperatures and around normal precipitation, so expect more winter fun for the year.

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Preview of 16-19 January 2009

Because of MLK day on Monday, I'll expand the forecast a day further. I know that some schools and government offices are closed on the holiday. So here's the preview for the weekend...

Temperatures will slowly "warm" over the weekend with the high temperatures going from the single digits on Friday, to the teens on Saturday, and then 20s on Sunday.

Low pressure, as it stands now moves along the Ohio border. This will bring snow into the region. especially lake effect snow. So more snow and moderating temperatures.

Monday, another storm drops through the region and brings another shot of cold air.

So for your outdoor activities, this is looking like another great weekend.

The weekend in review 9-11 Jan 2009

It figures that I would already violate my goal for the year. I'll try a little better. It looks like there will be some Wednesdays that will be too busy for the blog and podcast, so I will amend my goal with the main forecast on Wednesday or Thursday, and that includes the podcast.

Okay so now for the weekend in review...the snow was light over the weekend, with a few locations that got a little more (like 4" in Alpena). So the main thrust was down state. Temperatures have been in the lower to mid 20s around northern Michigan so the forecast wasn't too bad. The map is the 72 hour snowfall ending at 7 pm January 11th.

The weather for the week looks good for the production of snow. There will be several snow storms through this week so the snow depth will be maintained, as well as the snowmobile trails.

Preview of 9-11 January 2009

With the holidays behind us, I'm trying to get into my regular posting schedule. The schedule is usually, Tuesday a preview of the weekend, Wednesday is a general forecast for the weekend, and Thursday and Friday are used for updates if necessary. I try to get the podcast out on Wednesday as well. With that out of the way, here's the preview...

After we get some snow on Wednesday and Thursday, We will get a short break, and then a storm out of the central Plains will move along the Indiana/Michigan border. This storm will produce snow Friday night and Saturday. The least of the snow, if the track is right, will be near The Soo. The most will be along the M-55 corridor, although, as the winds turn north and then northwest, northwest lower Michigan will be under the gun for more snow. The lake effect snow will last into Sunday. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s for the high temperatures through the weekend.